08 April 2021, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
Rates implied by interest rate futures maturing over the next several years rose notably over the intermeeting period, reportedly reflecting a reassessment by market participants of the expected path of the target range for the federal funds rate. Since the FOMC January meeting, the date of the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate implied by a straight read of market pricing moved notably earlier to the first quarter of 2023, and the implied target rate at the end of 2023 rose around 50 basis points. However, responses to the Open Market Desk surveys suggested more modest changes to policy rate expectations. The probability-weighted mean survey expectation for the target rate at the end of 2023 rose only around 5 basis points. This is a negative signal for the dollar!
Investment idea: buy 1.1859 and take profit 1.1928.
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