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A reliable signal of upcoming recessions

A reliable signal of upcoming recessions | 05 Juli 2023

05 Juli 2023, GBP/USD

GBPUSD trading plan:

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.6 basis points at 4.91%. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.2 basis points to 3.83%. The spread between 2 and 10-year Treasuries has been inverted since last July. A yield curve inversion - in which shorter-dated Treasuries trade at higher yields than longer-dated securities - has been a reliable signal of upcoming recessions. The 2/10-year yield curve has inverted six to 24 months before each recession since 1955, according to a 2018 report by researchers at the San Francisco Fed, offering only one false signal in that time.

Investment idea: sell 1.2722 and take profit 1.2650.

David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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