13 November 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
Preliminary data from the University of Michigan: consumer sentiment has fallen, while inflation expectations have risen even further. In addition, both the index of current conditions and expectations fell to their lowest levels since May this year. Inflation expectations for the next year have risen to their highest level since April, reaching 4.4%, after a sharp rise in the previous month from 3.2% to 4.2%, confirming that last month's increase was not a random spike. More interesting, however, are Americans' inflation expectations for the next five years, which have risen to 3.2%, the highest level since 2011. It is difficult to say how stable this story of rising expectations is (perhaps it just reflects fears of oil shocks in the context of tensions in the Middle East), but the fact remains the same. For the Fed, this is a very uncomfortable and even frightening signal, not only because expectations are rising, but also because they are rising so fast - the "anchor" may even come loose.
Investment idea: sell 1.0707 and take profit 1.0637.
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