17 November 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
Traders will nervously await a review of Italy's ratings on Friday. Moody's rates Italy Baa3, just one notch above non-investment grade, and has had Rome on a negative outlook since August 2002. A downgrade would not only trigger a surge in Italy's bond yields and sink the stock of its banks, but would also hit the debt of other peripheral euro zone countries and probably weigh on the euro. Italian debt would then find itself on "a slippery slope that could spiral into greater turmoil if the market is not getting reassurance from elsewhere. Italian gross domestic product stagnated in the third quarter from the previous three months after contracting by 0.4% between April and June, and the government's tax-cutting 2024 budget significantly loosened its fiscal stance. The European Commission forecast on Wednesday that Italy's debt, proportionally the second highest in the euro zone, would rise marginally from a projected 140% of national output this year to 141% in 2025.
Investment idea: sell 1.0862 and take profit 1.0790.
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