10 April 2024, EUR/USD
Events to watch out for today:
15:30 EET. USD - Consumer price index
21:00 EET. USD - Publication of the Fed meeting minutes
EURUSD:
On both sides of the Atlantic, the economic agenda was sparse as market participants prepared for the release of US inflation data on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision on Thursday.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, down from February's 0.4% increase, while year-on-year CPI is expected to rise to 3.4% from 3.2%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to fall from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month and from 3.8% to 3.7% year-on-year.
The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged on April 11, but there is a growing possibility that President Lagarde and Co. may have to ease policy in June if they want to achieve a soft landing. This would widen the interest rate differential between the Eurozone (EU) and the US, further pushing EUR/USD lower.
Today will see the release of the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Fed meeting minutes. On Thursday, the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision will take center stage. The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged at its April meeting, but the likelihood of policy easing in June is increasing.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0875. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0830.
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