20 Agustus 2024, USD/JPY
USDJPY:
The USD/JPY pair traded in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 146.10 during Asian trading on Tuesday. The pair's decline is supported by the general weakening of the U.S. dollar (USD). Traders will keep an eye on Japan's national consumer price index (CPI) for July and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the dollar's value against a basket of foreign currencies, fell to a multi-day low near 101.85, creating a headwind for USD/JPY. Investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin easing policy in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now estimate a nearly 77% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in September and expect a 200 basis points (bps) rate cut in the next 12 months, although this will depend on incoming data.
As for the Japanese Yen, positive Japanese second quarter GDP data and a potential near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) support the Japanese Yen (JPY). Kazutaka Maeda, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, said that the reports are generally positive and “they support the BoJ's view and foreshadow further rate hikes, although the central bank will remain cautious as the last rate hike caused the yen to surge.”
Last week, Japan's Economy Minister Yoshitaka Shindo said Japan's economy is projected to gradually recover as wages and incomes rise. Shindo also said that the government will work closely with the Bank of Japan to implement accommodative monetary policy in the future.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level
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