The USA initial jobless claims is 329K | 25 April 2014

Euro

The market does not expect surprises from Mario Draghi. There are two weeks to the next meeting of the European monetary regulator and we believe that the head of the ECB will not make a serious statement about the prospects for monetary policy in the region now. The USA will publish a durable goods report. The consumer confidence growth in the first month of spring shows the possibility of a slightly data better than the median forecast that may support the demand for the U.S. currency.

The support level is 1.3810 and the resistance level is 1.3860.

MACD does not show any clear signal.

Trading recommendations

The technical picture has not undergone any changes. Inability to grow and consolidate above 1.3865 increases the support 1.3800-1.3785 breakdown risk. If that happens the pair may fall to the support at 1.3720. If the pair breaks the current resistance it may testing the 39th figure.

Pound

The UK market will not publish interesting reports today. The last MPC meeting minutes show expectations of moderate growth compared to the last quarter of 2013, which is favorable for the British currency. Nevertheless, the high rate of the pound may increase risks in the medium term which will act as a deterrent to the pair growth.

The support level is 1.6780 and the resistance level is 1.6830.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

After testing 1.6762 the pound rose to 1.6783 and then to 1.6790. The pressure on the pair is presumed and it can continue falling to test the support around the 67th figure. The fresh high mark break at 1.6842 shall strengthen the upward impulse and will open the way to 1.7000.

Yen

The profit-taking on the world's leading stock markets after a week of a growth puts pressure on the USD/JPY. We wait for the number for durable goods orders. This is a leading production trend indicator and it is always studied with a great attention. A whole series of macroeconomic releases indicates the U.S. economy recovery after the winter recession which allows to calculate the output of the positive data. In the light of this we can expect a moderate demand for the U.S. dollar.

The support level is 103.20 and the resistance level is 102.70.

MACD does not show any clear signal.

Trading Recommendations

The continued pressure on the dollar confirms that its strengthening is correctional and the downside risks to test the support at 101.59 are preserved. The growth above 102.72-103.00 will improve the dollar prospects.