The EUR/USD is in the red zone | 12 Maret 2015

Euro

The pressure on the euro is still preserved; the euro has actually decreased throughout the day against the dollar and ended up on the new multi-year lows. We believe that the January France payments balance report will attract some attention, we anticipate the deficit increase to -2.3 billion from -1.9 billion euro. The pair euro/dollar decline has continued. As a result, the pair broke through the minimum that was reached last week and the pair fell down below 1.0610-1.0630. The pair shows its oversold signs which increase the risk of a deep profit-taking, but it is not guaranteed that at the current levels.

The support levels are 1.0340-1.0360, and the resistance levels are 1.0630-1.0650.

MACD is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 1.0340-1.0360 testing before we see any correction attempt. The pair movement towards 1.1000-1.1020 can be used to short.

Pound

The British pound held the trades in the narrow side corridor against the dollar but then it fell and finished the session with new losses. We expect the January UK industrial production. In general, we believe in the index growth by 0.2% m/m and 1.3% y/y after -0.2% m/m, + 0.5% y/y at the end of last year and the manufacturing sector increase by 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y at + 0.1% m/m, + 2.4% y/y.

The pressure is still preserved, but the pair manages to consolidate above the support near 1.5040. The recovery attempts are limited by the resistance near the 51st figure. Thus, the pair was in the consolidation phase after decrease at the end of last week, trading in the range, limited by the above-mentioned levels. The pair fell at the yesterday trades.

The support levels: 1.4880-1.4900 and the resistance levels: 1.5000-1.5020.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The support breakthrough will lead to the levels of 1.4830-1.4850 testing and the pair’s growth above 1.5000-1.5020 will allow bulls to test 1.5100-1.5120.

Yen

The pair dollar/yen was growing in the first half of the session, it changed the direction in the second part of the day. At the end of the day the yen strengthened slightly against the US dollar. Economic statistics showed the machinery and equipment orders reduction by 1.7% m/m and to 1.9% y/y in January after the earlier good growth by 8.3% m/m, 11.4% y/y. In February the Japanese corporations increased by 0.0%, the m/m 0.5% y/y after -1.3% m/m, 0.3% y/y.

The US dollar was moving higher and higher against the Japanese yen, increasing above the level of 121.30-121.50. The dollar failed to consolidate above and, being under pressure, the dollar declined below this level. Then it rose and finished the trades above the level of 121.10-121.30. It should be a wake-up call for bulls. The chances for the growth continuation are still preserved.

The support levels: 121.10-121.30, and the resistance levels: 122.40-122.60.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The loss of the support will lead to a reduction towards the level of 120.00-120.20, its breakthrough will be a signal about the downward correction resumption. The 122nd figure completion will open the way towards the 125th figure.