#SP500:
Given the concerns over the banking landscape, bond traders believe the Fed could reverse course on monetary policy. February producer prices posted an unexpected decline, providing positive news on price pressures amid Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. The fallout from this month’s banking turmoil created a wave of technical damage across U.S. equity markets. Based on the degree of oversold conditions registered last week, a potential relief rally for stocks could be on the horizon. Since 2000, whenever 20% or more of the S&P 500 reached oversold levels, as occurred this week, the index has traded higher by an average of 4.2% over the following three months, outpacing the average three-month return by 2.0% during this timeframe.
Trading recommendation: buy 3870 and take profit 4070.
XAUUSD:
U.S. government bond yields fell steeply this week, with some durations marking their biggest drops in decades, as investors bet the Federal Reserve would likely curb its aggressive rate hike trajectory to avoid exacerbating financial system stress following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The volatility in fixed income markets has unsettled investors, and falling yields can reflect expectations that the Fed will cut rates because of a hit to growth. The banking crisis has stirred recession fears. This is a positive signal for gold.
Trading recommendation: buy 1949 and take profit 1974.
#WTI:
The traders grew concerned over the present banking climate and its potential effect on the economy as oil reached a 15-month low last week. For now, futures markets indicate that investors are assigning a 60% probability of a 25-basis point rate increase at the Fed's March 21-22 meeting, with rate cuts to follow later in the year - a sharp turnaround from the hawkish expectations that prevailed earlier this month. This is a positive signal for the oil market.
Trading recommendation: buy 64.00 and take profit 70.00.
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