Middle-term sketches | 17 Januari 2014

 EUR/USD

Monthly chart: as we see, for the first half of January, Euro is consolidated within December range. There is a predetermination to attack resistance 1.3919 with target 1.4260, but it is equally possible that rollback to Bollinger medium band (1.3107) can take place. Bearish scenario is also determined by stretched envelopes still based horizontally that still confirms strength of resistance 1.3919.

Weekly chart: a classical reversal combination of ADX/RSI link: oscillator is growing as ADX is falling down. As a rule, it means that bulls will get weaker upon the nearest resistance. Such a resistance is Bollinger upper band (1.3883). Nearest support is 1.3545.

Daily chart: local Over&Under with the entrance point 1.38. However the pair approached one more significant resistance from Bollinger medium band (1.3698)

Conclusion: so we have got three strong resistances in succession: 1.37, 1.38, и 1.3883. From each of them a rather strong Southern front can arise. Southern expectations in particular are the main scenario. Target can be based very deeply, in the area of 1.3107. Of course, there is an alternative option which can be considered upon break of resistance 1.3919. In this case accomplishing of 1.4260 is almost a certain deal.

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: here we see that trend effort from ADX is being escalated and meanwhile the pair can equal volumes both to upper direction, to a strong pivot 1.7042 and in the direction of support from Bollinger medium band (1.5854). We will try to be more detailed about these plans on satellite charts.

Weekly chart: oscillator moves up, ADX moves down – it is a pre-reversal combination. Resistance is 1.6643, support is  1.6066. These two particular levels can be raffled out this week.

Daily chart: disposition is similar to weekly chart but with a closer resistance from upper band - 1.6572 and support from bottom band 1.6261. Conclusion: main plan is to touch the area 1.6572 and roll back to 1.6261. Alternative option is breaking of 1.6572, growth to 1.6643, roll down to 1.6261 and possibly to 1.6066.

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: Southern dynamics still has not been overcome, bulls try to arrange “double bottom” though. You can bet that they will fail in this deal, however they are quite able to reach resistance from Bollinger medium band (0.9757). Upon all that, the tendency to further decline to the area of 0.8072 won't change.  However successful attack of Bollinger medium band will obviously provide Over&Under of a reversal type which will be a point for such a big frame.

Weekly chart: here we still have bearish disposition. Bulls actively work under support 0.8843, but ADX does not believe in general growth. Therefore, one of resistance points (0.9215 or 0.9673) will intensively move us back to 0.8843 with a high probability of a further down movement.

Daily chart: similar situation. Seemingly active position of buyers is side by side with passive ADX, which means that growth is of a correctional character.

Conclusion: main plan is to touch the area 0.9215 and fall down to 0.8843 (in case of breaking, we expect a deeper decline to 0.8636 and 0.8072). Alternatively, bulls can provide us with a steep veer to 0.9673 and further movement down will start exactly as it is given in the main plan.