Weekly review of three pairs | 04 April 2014

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: by all accounts, pinbar is beign formed, which may lead to drop of Euro at least to the middle Bollinger band (1.3230). If we evaluate indicator's tendency, it is early to expect break of general uptrend: meantime, both ADX and Bollinger stand to continue upper movement or just are late with their reversal.

Weekly chart: as we see, growth of Euro exerted divergence of oscillator during recent three weeks. Thus, key levels are support from the middle Bollinger band (1.3661) and resistance from the upper one. (1.3906). It is quite possible that following to test of these two points, Euro will drop to the bottom line (1.3391)

Day chart: here we will note about Over&Under pattern formed on younger frames with the entrance point to sales from 1.3914. We can expect more movement in this area or in the area from current levels following to the opening (the blue arrow) either a preparatory test of the bottom Bollinger band (1.3684, the purple arrow).

Conclusion: so, the dominating trend on Euro is declining movement to 1.3391 and 1.3230. Upon that, we can expect growth of the pair to the area 1.3914 with a better probability. It can take place both directly from current levels and from the support level1.3684.

That is to say, possible trading solutions can be purchases to the area 1.3914, and then sales from there to the points 1.3390 and 1.3230 (in the middle run). 

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: a complicated pivot in 200 points in the range 1.6835-1.7051. Breaking this wall will open bull the road to 0.91. Meanwhile, the most probable plan is a new rollback to the area of the middle band (1.5923 - the blue arrow). Upon that, both outcomes still preserve a general Northern determination of the pair.

Weekly chart: a strategic support of the uptrend 1.6427 (middle Bollinger band) still justifies itself. Bulls will come through control on the upper band (1.6835), because ADX implies that passage of the British will be cumbersome.

Day chart: here we see that reaching of 1.6835 is in fact almost a closed issue (if to judge by pressure asserted by the trend, price chart and RSI/ADX bindle)

Conclusion: so, we wait when the pair reaches 1.6835, where there will be a chance of down reversal to 1.5923. If bulls manage to force 1.6835, the attack of the point 1.7051 will be possible.

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: correction movement to the middle Bollinger band (0.9717) corresponds to our plan now. With all that we see that growth has correctional character. Thus, main plan will be a continuation of the pair's decline in the direction of 0.8418. If buyers manage to shift the price above 0.9717, we will get potential of growth to 1.0764.

Weekly chart: we remember about bullish convergence which does not prove its reversal force very well, but had already turned bottom Bollinger band by arranging support at the point of 0.8661. Quite a nervous trade will be between 0.8661 and 0.9717 (since range is wide indeed). Upon that, in the view of pressure of the monthly chart, reversal in the upper direction and continuation of movement down are equally possible.

Day chart: an ascending trend came into force here with all its might. The pair has been staying out of envelopes over a long time, thus, correction to the middle band (0.9066) is probable, upon which the movement to 0.9717 will take place. An alternative outcome is only possible if 0.9066 does not manage to hold bears. Then, we will see a return to 0.8661.

Conclusion: the main scenario is decline to 0.9066 and growth to 0.9717. Another option is break of 0.9066 and decline to 0.8661.