Weekly review of three pairs | 11 April 2014

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: so, first days of the new month demonstrate a relative readiness of the pair to work our March pin, which could provide the pair with the potential of decline at least to the support of the middle Bollinger band (1.3281). In whole, Bollinger envelopes do not show the tendency for reversal and have the upper line vector set for 1.4046.

Weekly chart: here an important diagnostic level is based: middle Bollinger band (1.3682). It is clear that bounce and breakthrough are equally probable, but meanwhile indicators speak for preservation of the Northern potential.

Day chart: right now the pair is based in the area 1.3682, from where it will rocket to the middle line (1.3822) if it is not capable to break below.

Conclusion: a main scenario is the bounce from current levels 1.3682 to 1.3822, where the possibility of further movement to 1.4046 will be determined.

Another option is the break of 1.3682 and decline of the pair to 1.3280.

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: so, we had got pin inside February's range. Still the price is based within pinbar's 50%, therefore, a shoot up is possible current levels. But decline to the middle line (1.5923) is possible as well once the movement inside Bollinger envelopes is worked out.

Weekly chart: here we can see that bulls cannot let the price go below middle Bollinger band (1.6463), because in this case the structure of uptrend will be broken and markets will get down along O&U pattern (red arrow).

Day chart:  Bollinger envelopes are based horizontally while ADX is calm, thus, it is rather probable that the pair will stay within 1.6476-1.6729.

Conclusion: a main scenario is the flat 1.6476-1.6729, with the possibility of breakthrough to 1.6813.

Another option is the break of 1.6463, decline to 1.6055, then the start of roll up to 1.6613, from there the pair will drop in the middle run while reaching its peak.

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: correction to the middle line (1.5717) continues, from where bears will go to one more wave below (at least to 0.9074) either reversal in the upper direction will take place. Meanwhile, the bottom band is the magnet for the price (0.8418), thus, Southern plans will be considered up to the specified level.

Weekly chart: While working out convergence which we've been tracing for weeks, the pair had almost reached the upper band (0.94) and now can move up either after a small rollback (to the middle one 0.9129) or after a deep rollback (to the bottom one - 0.8689).

Day chart: here an uptrend took a full power, but touch of the middle line (0.9129) is quite probable, thus, purchases or signals for purchases can be considered in this area.

Conclusion: growth of the pair to 0.9717 is considered by us. Shift of the price downward to 0.9129 is probable. Purchases from this level would look justified. Upon that, one more touch of 0.87 by the price is equally probable.