Weekly review of three pairs | 23 Mei 2014

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: so, we see that bulls were not able to approach resistance marked by 1.4053 and the pair is going through an active correction to the area of the middle Bollinger band (1.3310). At the same time, we can see euro's consolidation in the triangle, which has all chances to get an impetus once the pair leaves it (since ADX is proactive). Meanwhile, ADX is equally inclined to bullish and bearish fronts. Therefore, a control level is 1.3310. Buyers can act from there, whereas sellers will force the pair down to form a reversal Over&Under (by brown arrow). Under bullish scenario, middle-term potential is in the area of 1.4964, so buying from the area 1.3310 are of a hot interest due to a crazy Risk/Profit ratio.

Weekly chart: here we see a significant advantage of bears, who managed to drive the price out to the bottom envelope and form O&U within this frame. Thus, once support touches bottom (1.3515), one can wait bounce in the direction of start (1.3951), from where a middle-term wave od the pair's decline to 1.3310 will start. Upon that, an interesting point is that even such a durable protracted scenario does not break determination to the North on the month's chart. That is to say, one will have the space to earn in the nearest time.

Day chart: here we see a fake breakthrough of an inside bar, a pinbar and a new inside bar. Main expectation is the growth from current levels to 1.3950 and decline from there to the area of 1.3310. Another option is to break Low of pinbar (1.3648) and move to1.3515

Conclusion: main scenario is growth of the pair once markets are open and to move to the direction of 1.3950, from where the wave down will start with the target 1.3310. Another option is to break under 1.3648 and move to 1.3515, from where once will wait for growth to 1.3950.

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: an ascending preparation to break pivot 1.7150 has been preserved. Support is represented by the middle Bollinger band (1.60). Only once support 1.60 (brown) is broken, we can consider bearish plan. Middle-term targets will start from 1.4863 (the bottom Bollinger band).

Weekly chart: a key support for uptrend is based 1.6610 for this frame (the middle Bollinger band). Once we leave under 1.6610, we will wait once the pair moves to the bottom band (1.6289), where the pattern Over&Under will have been formed with 1.6835 (brown) as entrance point.

Day chart: a local Over&Under has been formed here in its turn. Entrance to sales is in the area of 1.6920. Upon that, we will note that working through the target (1.6610) won't break ascending scenario on the week's chart. Also we will note that break of the pattern O&U can only be reached once the pair achieves new tops which is slightly possible. ADX proves the last guess.

Conclusion: main plan is the growth from current level 1.6920 and decline from there to 1.6610. Another option is a direct decline to 1.6610 without a preliminary roll to 1.6920.

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: movement is still within descending structure, which can only be broken by the leave above the middle Bollinger band (0.9625, pink). Once this resistance is not broken, there is a threat of a new decline with the target 0.84 (the bottom Bollinger band).

Weekly chart: bulls do not insert a too strong pressure, but we remember that current growth takes place on the background of convergence. Thus, breaking 0.9625 dominates among other chances. Upon that, we will assume a rollback to the middle band (0.9064, brown)/

Day chart: flat channel 0.9233-0.9400 with a slight probability of change.

Conclusion: flat 0.9233-0.94 is here.