Review based on trend potential | 19 Desember 2014

S&P500

Monthly chart: half of December is behind and right now the index is undergoing an active correction. In the meantime downward reversal has not been fully confirmed, because the upper Bollinger band (1217.2) still was not worked through. But in general it looks very much like that a full downward reversal will work after that. Let's make a reservation that this conclusion won't be final, because the indicator's character switched from reversal to correctional. Also there is a strong bullish support on the middle Bollinger band (1818.7). Meantime it is not broken and uptrend will continue.

Weekly chart: borders of Over&Under are marked with pink areas. Also we see that to for such a manoeuvre bears will have to break support the line 1818.8. To continue upward movement, bulls can push off current levels, because the middle Bollinger band (2004.0) almost has been reached.

Day chart: we confirm the support 2004.0 (red arrow). If price moves lower, a strong downward potential will start to work and threat of reversal occurs.

Conclusion: main scenario is the bounce from 2004.0 in the direction of 1217.2 Another option is breakthrough of 2004.0 and descend down to 1818.7. "Brent" oil Monthly chart: price is actively moving down and there are no technical reasons to stop its collapse to the area of 52$ per barrel. Also there is a threat of drop to 34.90.

Weekly chart: a direct move to 52 is only prevented by the fact it is heavily oversold now. The area of probable technical rollback is 73.20. The highest potential for correction is the area 90.00. Once such rollbacks take place, a new bearish wave will begin.

Day chart: the picture is absolutely similar here. 73.20 – is the point of new probable offer.

Conclusion: so, the oil is getting to 52$ per barrel and traders look to sell it. Such options may arise on rollback to 73.20. Another option is breakthrough above 73.20 which will create prerequisites for correction up to 90.00.

Gold

Monthly chart: ADX is about to show trend, but has not reached it yet. In this regard,  growth may be prevented on the middle Bollinger band (1266.76) which can lead to a new descending down to the support 1142.

Weekly chart: the price is growing as convergence of the oscillator is taking place. Thus, in general, gold is moving up but there is a probability of new touch of 1142 (the bottom Bollinger band). Target - 1320 (the upper band). 

Day chart: as we see, downtrend is preserved and this tendency will work until resistance 1257 is broken (pink area). Support is based at 1171.02

Conclusion: main scenario is decline from the area 1235-1256 to 1171 (so, more signals for sales have to be found). Another option is breakthrough above 1257 and growth to 1320.