Sketches for the week | 22 November 2013

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: half of the month is behind and one can see how hard it is for bears to get rollback. General tendency is that it is difficult to continue to move up without touching zone of Bollinger medium band (1.3060).

Besides, this rollback swing can become full only after a new Low will have been reached by December bar (with all that it implies in terms of time)

Getting below  the medium band would be a warning bell for buyers, but break of beginning up-trend would be only possible under the breaking of 1.2749. Until it happens, present things must be taken as the preparation for the  impetus to zone 1.4260.

Weekly chart: inside bar from Bollinger medium band is a very good bullish signal. Therefore, it is absolutely possible that we will see the start of uprising front directly from current levels. Within the frames of the same scenario, preliminary false break down is probable (to zone 1.3060, that generally stays within scenario of monthly chart). Meantime, resistance is zone 1.3784 (upper Bollinger line). 

Daily chart: here we cannot forget about O&U (path marked by red arrow). In case of active bounce from zone 1.3596, downward potential will be confirmed. In other case, we can witness growth to 1.3784. 

Conclusion: main option is working out daily O&U, in particular, growth to 1.3596 and drop to 1.3342, with the target 1.3060. Alternative option is growth to 1.3784 (in case of breaking above 1.36). Upon that, a significant potential for growth to 1.4260 will be shown.

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: narrowing of the range and potential readiness of bulls for breakthrough and growth to 1.66 and 1.7042 are witnessed. But we should not expect that much, because there are still enough of bearish objections including both slanting resistance and inactive ADX. Thus, directions for the pair marked by red and blue arrows are equally probable. Signal for the growth could be break above 1.6300.

Weekly chart: Bollinger envelopes confidently dashing up are not supported by ADX, thus, it is probable that in the range 1.6240-1.63 active sales of the pair can be seen again. Upon that, supports are expected either on the medium band (1.5760) or on the pivot 1.5267

Daily chart: flat range is saved - 1.5916-1.6241 and everything speaks for keeping the price inside this range during the week. Upon the break of upper wall, the signal for buying Pound could be as stronger. Thanks to zone 1.5916, general upward trend is supported by the pair.

Conclusion: main option is growth to 1.6241 and an abrupt rollback down in the direction 1.5760, 1.5260, 1.5916 (three levels, each of them can serve as an extra support line) An alternative option is break above 1.6241, then attack 1.63 and leaving to upper zone, in the direction of 1.6412, 1.6538 and target for 1.70.

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: continuation of general downward movement of the pair either forming of reversal through “double bottom” (marked by blue arrow) are still two equally possible options. The key support point to draw one of two scenario is the level 0.8852. Any leave above the medium band (0.9995) will either become an out-runner of the pair's growth for not less than 600 points.  Meanwhile, 0.8574 and 0.8072 remain to be the targets.

Weekly chart: a fairly good pinbar from Bollinger medium band is witnessed. That allows us to rely upon one more growth scenario – movement up directly from current points. Break below the medium band would be a significant short -signal too.

Daily chart: key resistance is the Bollinger medium band (0.9495). Bears must start to go down from that zone. Bulls will get their chance in the case of break above.

Conclusion: main option is the growth from current to 0.9495 and falling of the pair down to 0.9037, 0.8850. An alternative option is break above 0.9495 and growth to 0.9995.